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As of right now, the Red River is at 17.48 feet and it was 16.85 feet at about this time yesterday…. I predict we will be in flood stage at some point tomorrow. The forecasted high is 31 degrees for today and tomorrow. Although these temps are below freezing, there will be some melting in the area that will put some water in the Red River. I think the big melt is going into full effect starting this week.
The question is no longer whether we are going to have major flooding, but when. The NWS put a “>98%” chance on major flooding for all sites up and down the Red River Valley. They gave us a 10% chance that we will reach 44.4 feet here in Fargo and a 50% chance that we will reach 40.5 feet. Hopefully, Mother Nature will allow us the time we need to get all of our ducks in a row prior to the crest. Sandbags need to be delivered, layed and all of our dikes need to be put in place.
The temps over the next week will be in the 30s and 40s which will provide melting that can be probably about as decent as it can get at this point in the game. Unfortunately, weather.com is also showing that there will be rain/snow over the next 10 days. I am not able to see the amount, but hopefully none of these events will end up producing very much rainfall. A large rain could make things more difficult for the 2011 Fargo spring flood.
We are certainly in for another ride this spring in terms of flooding and I am beginning to be pessimistic about how this may turn out. I hope I am wrong and I hope Denny Walaker’s prediction is right. We do not need any more flooding in this area.
Like I thought, this report does not make thing better and the NWS has forecasted a worse outlook for the Red River Valley this spring. According to the NWS (as reported by KFGO radio that I am listening to), there is a 50% chance that we will hit 40.5 feet – up dramatically. 10% chance of 44.4 feet. News conference will follow this morning.
I hope I am wrong, but I think we are going to be in for a ride. I will update later this evening when I know more.
The snow/rain/sleet/thunder/lightning/hail we had in the Red River Valley this morning and last night was not needed and I wonder how it will impact the next National Weather Service Spring 2011 flood outlook? Originally, the NWS was supposed to report this Thursday, but that has been delayed until Friday or Saturday. Something tells me it will not be good.
It seems like every flood forecast from the NWS gets continually worse, no matter the amount of precipitation that falls between reports. Hopefully I am wrong, but it seems to be the case that this is going to bring worse news. If anything, it has disrupted sandbag delivery. This storm contained a large amount of moisture and it will not help. We now have had almost TWICE the average snowfall for the entire season. The temps are to remain below freezing for the rest of the week and that is not good, as it will push our melt into April.
On the bright side, we did have some slow and apparently ideal melting for the past few weeks. Hopefully this will have gotten rid of some of the water. At this point… that is about all I have for the positive on the weather front. We have a community with the strength and intestinal fortitude that will do what it takes to get through this!
Stay safe Red River Valley
The past two years had rather large weather events before the season’s Red River crest and this year does not look to be any different. The National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning for Cass County that calls for snowfall in excess of 12 inches. We don’t need this for two reasons.
First, I don’t think I am the only one in the area that is flat out sick of winter. I love ice fishing and can appreciate our seasons, but I want it to be done with. Even though it is probably better that this precipitation falls in the form of snow rather than rain, I don’t want any of it. I am ready for some decent weather and 12 inches of snow do not help us out. Even though this is Fargo, ND and we are used to the cold weather…. Enough already!
Second, and most importantly, we do not need the additional precipitation and this cannot be good for the Spring 2011 Red River flood. The average snowfall for the month of March is 7.4 inches and we are already at 7 inches. In addition, some of this will be in the form of rain, which may invoke flooding.
For those of you in the Red River Valley, I wish all of you a safe storm. Hopefully it is a dud!
Just kidding… I am moving, but not because of our floods. Tonight is my last night living right next to the Red River. I am not going far and only to South Fargo, but it certainly makes my life a bit different.
We are a part of this community and will continue tossing sandbags like everybody else. I also must make it clear that I am not moving from my Oak Grove neighborhood because I am afraid of the flood… well, I am afraid of the flood, but it is not the reason why I am moving. We found a house that better meets our needs right now and thought it was a good time to move.
There are houses close to the river that are for sale(mine is not) and great bargains. I live in Oak Grove and there are 2 houses for sale on my block that are great and affordable. The number of permanent dikes that have gone up on this little block is astounding. I feel very safe on my block and the water played very little of a factor in our decision to leave. If you are looking at houses, I would recommend that you do not keep houses like those in my neighborhood off of your list just because of the Red River. There are some great opportunities for investment in these neighborhoods and some beautiful areas. We are surrounded by parks, walking distance to downtown and I have very few neighbors.
My flood cam will go down, but I will continue blogging and I hope you continue reading.
There are a few items of interest I would like to touch on:
- I have heard a few times from various individuals that we are done filling sandbags. NO! Just because Fargo is done, that does not mean that there are not opportunities to help. Other areas are still filling sandbags. Call the help line (shown to the left of my homepage) to find out where you can help.
- I just wrote that we might see some significant moisture on Sunday. Based on what I have heard on the weather throughout the day, it looks like the significant moisture might miss us. On top of that, we are in for a cool down with moderate melting during the day and freezing in the evening. I would imagine this is good for the Red River Valley and the spring 2011 flood.
- The article in the www.fargoflooding.com news area about Sentinel Barriers and the use of the Trapbags system caught my eye. I found it specifically interesting that they are contracted to provide six miles of temporary flood protection levees. That is a long distance! It will be interesting to find out where these are used. If you know where, please let me know.
- As we get closer to the 2011 flood crest date, the flood predictions will become closer to what the actual crest will be. For the past few 2011 Spring flood outlooks released by the NWS, it seems like they have just been getting worse and worse. Hopefully we will see some positive news with the next outlook. Hope for some positive news!
Potential rain this weekend could trigger the big melt. KVLY is reporting that we may have a weather event this Sunday that might spark major flooding in the Red River Valley. They report that this weather event may have a significant amount of moisture and I don’t think this would be good for the Fargo area.
Of all the times that the weather people are wrong, I hope this is one of them! It would seem that a significant moisture dump in the form of rain would be terrible. Not only would it have the potential of adding inches of moisture, but it also has the potential to melt a great amount of the snow in a very short time. This is starting to sound like it could end up being painfully similar to 2009 when we started getting rain during the melt and crest dates came suddenly.
Fortunately, we have some factors on our side if things do go down in a similar manner to the 2009 Red River Valley floods. First, we have sandbags already ready to go. This is a head start we have in comparison to 2009. Also, we have clay dikes in place. Work has been going on for the past two years in the area to deal with these larger floods. I would expect that some of the same work has been happening up and down the valley. Finally, we are just better prepared and on edge as a community. I think 2009 caught several of us off guard. Now, many of us use that as the guideline of what can happen.
We have plenty to worry about and I hope you all are preparing for the worst case scenario. Even if not much happens in the 2011 spring flood, it is good to be prepared. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!
Oh boy, we are going to start feeling it this week. The temps are going to be above freezing in Fargo all week and it is going to start feeling like seasonal temps. With all of the melting that is going to go on this week in the Red River Valley, I would suspect we are going to start seeing some increases in the Red River levels.
Currently, we are at 16.27 feet here in Fargo and I would expect to see that increasing over the next week. Will we cross over the flood stage of 18 feet this week? I would be interested to hear your thoughts. There are several more weeks of melting ahead of us, but I think we are going to see the very beginnings of the big melt this week.
I am happy to see spring coming, but nervous for the Fargo Moorhead community and surrounding Red River areas. Denny Walaker has said 41 feet and his gut feelings about crests have yet to fail the community, but could he be wrong this year? The NWS is predicting a later thaw and crest, which is not good, but are they wrong this year?
The opportunity for variables is narrowing and predictions will start to become more and more accurate. Hopefully, the variables that are left will be in the favor of our community. Welcome to spring and have a safe dry week!
 The above chart shows some probabilities as to the level of the Red River over the next few months. It was published on Feb. 28, but still has some good information. My poor man’s logic looks at the chart found at the NWS and tells me that there is a good chance that the crest is going to happen between 4/11 and 4/18. Obviously, this is not an exact science and there are plenty of variables that still will come into play, but we know the crest is not happening in the next week, so this guess is as good as any.
Based on this chart, I would say that the danger zone is between 3/28 and 4/25. It looks like the 10 day forecast is calling for some melting temps and freezing those same evenings, which I would think would be good. I also expect for us to get into flood levels in the next week, but that is my poor man’s logic talking again.
Is the Red River starting its slow increase to what will eventually be the 2011 Red River Vally spring flood crest? Based on the readings from fellow Twitter member @redriveratfargo, the last reading for Red River at Fargo was at 16.16 feet. This level is 1.84 feet below flood stage.
This information alone might not mean much, but looking back at the past few weeks it looks like it might mean something more. The rate at which the Red River is rising seems to be increasing at a higher rate. The following is a list of the amounts that the Red River has increased the past few days:
- · .11’ on March 6
- · .09’ on March 5
- · .04’ on March 4
- · 0’ on March 3
- · .01’ on March 2
- · .01′ on March 1
Based on the temperatures lately, I am not sure why the Red is starting to increase. Perhaps this is the beginning of the big rise that is sure to come. On the other hand, I might be just be overreacting because I know it is coming soon.
Either way, we all know it is coming. Thank you to everyone who is and will be volunteering!
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