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The Fargo Forum reports that the 2011 Fargo flood now stands a 30% chance of surpassing the 2009 Red River Valley flood. I think the message is clear, prepare for the worst and hope for the best!
Sandbags are being filled, dikes are already being constructed and officials are meeting. These are the preparations going on across the entire Red River Valley to prepare for the worst case scenario.
We can still hope. Precipitation might be low in the month of March and early April. Melting may be gradual this spring. There are many things that could turn this into a moderately severe spring flood rather than a terrible spring flood.
One thing is clear, however, and that is that our flooding problems are not going away anytime soon. I do see some progress being made around the City of Fargo, but we need a long term solution in place. While we all continue bickering about who gets what/where, our entire community might end up being lost… then we all are losers.
So much for having a less than average month of snowfall for the month of February. The last NWS prediction indicated a deteriorating outlook for spring flooding in the Red River Valley. I had wondered why the prediction for Fargo and the surrounding areas had actually gotten worse, but I guess the question has been answered. We are on our way to a potentially disastrous spring flood.
The snowfall on February 21 pushed us over the edge. As of February 20th, we had .3 inches of snow in Fargo, but the snowfall on the 21st and forward brings us to 7.8 inches for the month. The average is 6.7 inches for the month. We are now up to 67 inches for the year where the average is 35.3. This is TOO MUCH.
This does not account for the multiple snow systems south of Fargo that will impact our flooding this spring. Even though the snowfall in the Fargo area is high, I believe the snow averages to the south of Fargo is even worse. For those who are not from the area and reading this post, this is not good news for the entire Red River Valley.
There are several factors that will still determine what will happen in the next month or two. Hopefully, those factors will work in our favor because things are not looking the best from where I am sitting. Even if we end up ok in the Fargo area, there are several communities up and down the valley that will certainly have additional problems.
Buy drain plugs NOW. It really is that simple.
In the Red River Valley flood of 2009, I remember there was a mad rush to obtain drain plugs. The entire city of Fargo was out of drain plugs. Everybody waited until the last moment to purchase these little devices and a good number of those people had problems. I happened to have a relative who traveled for a living and picked me up a few drain plugs from a city several hundred miles away.
Some of you might be wondering what a drain plug is and what it has to do with Fargo flooding issues. It is just a little plug that can fit into a home’s basement floor drain or any other drain. It is designed to either keep water in your basement or sewage out. Most often, it is used to keep sewage backup out of the basement. This little $5-$20 dollar investment can keep your basement from filling up with other people’s poop.
Poop is not something I like in my basement and if you feel the same AND worry that it might flood this spring, now might be a good time to pick up a drain plug. Perhaps the stores will be a bit more prepared this year or more folks have drain plugs in Fargo, but I would not suggest risking it.
The area is making progress in preparation for the 2011 spring Fargo area flood. Approximately 620k sandbags have been filled thus far and on a steady pace to reach our 3 million sandbag goal. The Red River Valley has a long ways to go, but it looks like we should reach the sandbag goal for defending 42 feet!
There are several places that might need sandbags, but I have noticed that Fargo is already taking steps to prepare for clay dikes. In my neighborhood (Oak Grove), they have knocked over several houses and leveled dirt. I am not sure if the dirt is up to 44 feet (with expectation of 42 crest), but it certainly is a start. I suspect that other at risk neighborhoods are starting to see some changes as well.
Once again, our community is pulling together to complete what we needs to be done for the 2011 Fargo flood. Hopefully, as we get closer to the Red River crest we don’t become complacent.
The Red River Valley 2010 flooding is on its way. We are in a somewhat unique situation that we have quite a bit of warning time and plenty of time to prepare for disaster. We have between 30 and 60 days to prepare for the flooding that will likely happen this year. This gives us the opportunity to get our belongings in order and today I want to send out a reminder to take care of your important paperwork and/or keepsakes.
In the 2009 Fargo flood, we were all very concerned that the city was going to flood. My house was behind a contingency dike and there was a very real possibility that my house was going to see Red River water. Although losing my house would have been a terrible ordeal, it is the contents inside that could make it even worse. If I lost my personal pictures (wedding, family) in a flood, it would be devastating. Also, there is some paperwork (insurance, mortgage, birth certificate) that would not be fun to lose. I packed up my important items and kept them at a house that was not in as much danger. If you can make arrangements to protect these important items during a flood, you are one step ahead of the game.
State Bank & Trust provides some good insight into how you can protect your items with a safe deposit box. This is a great idea and these boxes are placed in vaults that are resistant to weather, including the floods that we are so prone to. Although it might cost a bit of money to keep your valuables here, it might be the best option to ensure that your important belongings are kept safe.
You could also move your belongings to other people’s houses. I had done this with the 2009 Red River flood. Everything worked out well, but I realized that once I had moved my items that the house I moved my items to was in danger also. This house was not in as much danger, but there still was the potential for problems. If you do this, make sure where you keep your items is a safe location. Also, make sure you trust the residents of this location. These items are important enough to move off site and this may also mean that the information is sensitive. If you are giving your birth certificate, social security card and marriage certificate to someone else, you had best trust them. An option is to pick up a portable safe so you can keep these items under lock and key.
Another option is to just move your items to the top floor. Although this is an option, I would warn that there may be dangers to this and would not recommend this as the safest option for important items. During a disaster, anything could happen. Possibly, your house would start on fire. Although I am not sure how much we worry about this in the Red River Valley, looting has been an issue with abandoned houses. Could your house be knocked over? If your house is flooding, you can keep your items on higher levels (assuming you have a second floor), but I would not recommend this as the most optimal solution for your very important items.
Now is the time to make a plan to safeguard your stuff. Think about what you are going to do now while it is easy rather than at the last moment if a flood disaster does happen. Flood insurance is important, but there are some things that money just cannot replace. Whether you rent a safety deposit box or bring your valuables over to a trusted family member, I urge to think about what you might do.
New National Weather Service forecasts for the Spring 2011 Red River flood outlook have gotten worse. The Red River in Fargo has a 20% chance of reaching 41.2 feet this spring according to reports by the Fargo Forum. The last report put the 20% prediction at 40.7 feet.
Maybe I am crazy, but it does not seem like negative things have happened since the last outlook forecast. I do not believe there has not been more than average snow. The temps have been seasonably high. I just don’t understand what would cause the new outlook to be worse for the 2011 Fargo floods in relation to the last outlook a month ago. With apparently good conditions, how could the percentages have gotten worse?
I will update more as I am able to review the data and find more information.
News reports are coming in left and right indicating that Fargo is preparing for “the annual flood fight.” Tomorrow, we will get some important Fargo flood predictions about our “annual flood fight” and hopefully it is good news. It is not that hard to find articles that discuss our “yearly” flood. I have had plenty of people over the past few years ask why I would live in Fargo when it ALWAYS floods. When did our Fargo area flood become a yearly event? It does not always flood. Sure, there have always been wet and dry cycles in the red river valley for hundreds of years… but the kind of YEARLY extreme flood fight that we have been involved in seems to be new to me.
First, when people ask why I would live in Fargo (and North Dakota) for whatever reason, I tell them because I love it here. Second, did we talk about a “yearly” flood fight 15 years ago? No. Prior to 1997 we just had not seen these flood levels in our lifetimes. The houses in my neighborhood have been here since the 20s and 30s. If we had been seeing these flood levels ever year, these houses would have been knocked down years ago. Only after the floods of the past two years have they been knocked down because of city buyouts. Simple facts are that the “yearly” flood fight is really only a product of the past 2 years and less loosely related to the Red River flood of 1997 and water events of the past 15 years. Some people have told me that “it has always been like this”, but that just does not seem to be the case to me. Flooding is getting worse and more frequent.
Sure, we have had flooding on and off in the area for a long time, but have only had dramatic record breaking events in recent years. This flood never used to be a yearly event, but now an entire industry is revolving around our annual flooding event. We anxiously await the NWS flood predictions which will probably spark concern across the region and make more news about our “annual” flood. I think it is tiring for everybody in our community and really hope that our officials can get our plans on track so this can be taken care of in our lifetimes.
New National Weather Service predications are expected this Thursday and it will be interesting to hear the new outlook for the Red River Valley. Several articles have indicated that the warm up this week will not impact the outlook for Spring flooding, but I think there are a few different items that could positively impact the upcoming outlook.
First, I just don’t believe that this melt does not have SOME kind of positive impact. This is my unscientific opinion, but it makes sense to me. The argument is that the water is not making it to the river, but how could this be? Some of the melt must be getting into the drain and over the course of a week of slow melt, it seems only logical that some of this water makes it to the river. Even if it does not get to the river, it gets closer to the river and makes it easier for this moisture to get to the Red River at a later date. Combined with a moderate melt in the next few weeks, this week of melting is bound to help a bit. According to Weather Underground, the snow depth has decreased by 2 inches in the month of February.
Also, we have had a relatively small amount of snow that has fallen this month. We have had .2 inches of snow that has fallen this month and the average is 3.8 inches. I do not know exactly how the NWS makes its predictions, but I imagine that it would account for average snowfall. Even the month of January was relatively average for snowfall in the Fargo area. December was a terrible month and apparently it was a wet Fall in the Valley (although I thought it seemed dry compared to the past few years). Overall, we still have had snowfall much greater than the average, but since the last NWS Fargo flooding prediction, not much has happened in terms of weather. It would seem that less than average precipitation would skew the NWS predictions to the positive side.
There will likely be plenty of flooding this Spring no matter what comes out, but these two items are providing some hope for a more positive outcome to me. I may be giving more opinion than fact, but these items seem like common sense. The snow is slowly melting and that should be good news. Less than average snowfall should be positive news. That we had a very wet Fall and early Winter has been a huge issue, but the last NWS predictions likely did not take into account the mild temps and snowfall since the last prediction. We will find out on Thursday, but I hope the report is the beginning of positive news in terms of the 2011 Red River Valley flood.
Sandbagging on day 1 did not go as well as expected, but I am still confident that we will get there! We better, or there could be trouble when the Red River crests in the not so distant future. There are many people that were able to get out to sandbag central to fight the 2011 Fargo flood. THANK YOU to all that spent time doing this. It sounds like approximately 70,000 sandbags were filled up and although it did not meet the 100,000 goal, it did get us started.
I would expect that spring projects are starting all over the region and a few have started in my neighborhood. Several houses were bought out in the Oak Grove neighborhood and they are finally tearing them down. It is sad to see these houses (and homes) go, but it is good to see the city getting things in order for the 2011 Red River flood.
I would be interested in hearing about the projects that are going on in your area to prepare for the 2011 Red River flood. Send me an email at ben@fargoflooding.com to tell me more.
2011 Red River flood efforts are starting to pick up. Anybody that lives in the area has been able to enjoy the wonderful weather the past few days. Along with this awesome weather comes some reminders that the 2011 Fargo area flood is very near.
It was melting today. All of the icicles have fallen off of our house. What took all winter to form is gone in just a few days. Water was dripping rapidly from our roof and unfortunately I even had a little seepage from my window…. Hopefully that is the only seepage I get all year.
Sandbag Central is opening today. Call 476-4000 for where you can volunteer your time in the 2011 Red River valley flood efforts. I am sure there are several volunteer openings for filling sandbags or they can direct you to a volunteer opportunity that best fits your skill set.
SPRING is right around the corner and that is the ever present sign that so is flooding in the Fargo area… or at least that is becoming the standard rather than the rule. It is very unfortunate. Hopefully, all of this snow/ice melts in a manner that minimizes water issues. I would imagine this early melt will actually help and also the wind might help evaporate water.
Our community is moving rapidly from the planning phase to the execution phase. Hopefully it will all come together to keep everybody safe and minimize any damage.
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